Saturday, February 13, 2016

Arizona Diamondbacks


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MLB   2015   ESPN

 Win Percentage
http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings/_/sort/wins/season/2015/group/league

 Runs Scored  Offense
http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings/_/sort/pointsfor/season/2015/group/league

 Runs Allowed Defense
http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings/_/sort/pointsagainst/season/2015/group/league

 Differential
http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings/_/sort/pointdifferential/season/2015/group/league
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ESPN  Projected Lineups  MLB  preseason
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14936299/mlb-projected-lineups-all-30-teams

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 Roster Resource

 http://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-arizona-diamondbacks/
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ESPN

 Relief Pitching

 Bull Pen

 http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/pitching/split/128

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 FanGraphs

 Relief Pitching

 Bull Pen

 http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=15,a

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 FanGraphs

 Fielding

 http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=8,d

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 RotoWorld

 http://www.rotoworld.com/teams/depth-charts/mlb.aspx?league=National

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ESPN closer depth chart

 http://espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/flb/story?page=REcloserorgchart

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MLB.com Depth Chart

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 Projected Wins

 http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings
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 FanGraphs  Starting Pitchers

 http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/complete-list-pitching/
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=10&type=c,8,13,-1,36,37,40,48,6,16,41,42,112,113,139,140,3,10,14,48&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0
Starting Pitchers
Full Season
Innings Pitched  >  10
download the excel spreadsheet

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 RotoWorld   Injuries

 http://www.rotoworld.com/teams/injuries/mlb/all/


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 ARI D'BACKS  ov82-108
ARI D'BACKS  un82-112

 http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

 2015   Arizona   79 Wins

 Projected improvement 2016

 Improvement  >  79

 *Over 82



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21 reasons

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RosterResource.com Depth Chart
http://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-arizona-diamondbacks/


http://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-arizona-diamondbacks/













MLB standings 2014

MLB standings 2013

Arizona Diamondbacks 2015

Runs Created

WAR

Fielding Defensive WAR

Pitcher Games Started

Pitcher Innings Pitched

Pitcher As Reliever

Pitcher As Starter

Transactions

Rotoworld Depth Chart

MLB.com Depth Chart

RosterResource.com Depth Chart

CBS Depth Chart

FoxSports Depth Chart

FoxSports Injury Report

FantasyAlarm Depth Chart

FantasyPros Closer Depth Chart

ESPN BullPen Depth Chart

FangGraphs Projections

RotoBaller Closer Depth Chart

ESPN fantasy

ESPN closer depth chart




Brad Ziegler 1.85
Tyler Clippard 2.92 NY Mets
Daniel Hudson 3.86
Josh Collmenter 3.79
Silvino Bracho 1.46







MLB.com Depth Chart

RosterResource.com Depth Chart

ESPN


Batters
Jean Segura from Milwaukee

Milwaukee's payroll

OF Khris Davis Milwaukee to Oakland


Arizona Batters










Runs Created 2015



Trades  2015 players traded away to other teams

Atlanta Braves
http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/stats/_/id/31327/ender-inciarte

Milwaukee Brewers
http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6190/aaron-hill


Defense Fangraphs
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/

DEF  Fangraphs Fielding 2015
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=23,d

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/def/

DRS  Fangraphs Fielding 2015
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=8,d

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/drs/

BsR  Fangraphs  BaseRunning 2015
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,d

BsR 
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/bsr/

Relievers Pitching  2015

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=15,a



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 http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=6,d

 Batter Stats

 R = Runs scored by the player

 This is still a useful stat.
There a team, situational, lineup factors.

 R  still tell us something about the player.
Player gets  On base
Not getting out
successfully scores

 RBI
is a team stat
it shows that the team can get players  On base
and the baserunners successfully get to home plate
Not getting out

 High  R  and  RBI  provides useful information

 Low  R and RBI  Not as useful

 More stats is better
Extract all information out of the stats that you can from the stats that you have

 Batting Average is useful
I do Not like  stat experts  who try to shoot down stats
Also experts try to get One stat like War
Look   we want all stats
We want more stats

 the new ERA substitutes   FIP
introduces assumptions
you must declare assumptions
assumptions
empirical equations
you still need to raw data

 multi variable analysis
it is sometimes better to keep the raw data
but data mine and filter based on  2  or 3 stats


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http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/complete-list-pitching/
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=10&type=c,8,13,-1,36,37,40,48,6,16,41,42,112,113,139,140,3,10,14,48&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0
Starting Pitchers
Full Season
Innings Pitched  >  10


download the excel spreadsheet

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 FanGraphs
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/complete-list-pitching/

 Relief Pitchers
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=10&type=c,6,16,36,40,37,36,113,139,140,112,40,48,41,42,3,10,8,13&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

Relief Pitchers
Full Season
Innings Pitched  >  10
download the excel spreadsheet

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FanGraphs   Starting Pitchers   Revised

 http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=10&type=c,6,16,36,40,37,36,113,139,140,112,40,48,41,42,3,8,13,16,10&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=3,d

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RELIEF   PITCHERS

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=10&type=c,6,16,36,40,37,36,113,139,140,112,40,48,41,42,3,8,13,16,10&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0



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 1. Run scoring
2. Fielding
3. Starting Pitchers / Relief Pitchers

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 Effort

 MLB is Lazy  in general
MLB has a culture / tradition of Laziness / wanting to look cool
Lackadaisical
Hit the ball, stand at the plate, see where it goes,
then run ??? 
Get a stopwatch 

 Every player should SPRINT to first base
Look for teams with a culture of Great Effort / High Motor
Skill and Will

 MLB with Great Effort / High Motor
have a Huge Advantage 
over the average MLB team with mediocre effort

 Effort Index

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http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/68778/brett-on-poor-projections-for-royals-stats-dont-measure-brain-or-heart





ESPN  Projected Lineups  MLB  preseason

 http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14936299/mlb-projected-lineups-all-30-teams

MLB park dimensions

 http://m.mlb.com/cutfour/2014/04/28/73642276/the-dimensions-of-every-big-league-ballpark-in-this-cool-infographic
MLB park dimensions

 http://thumbnails.visually.netdna-cdn.com/baseballs-many-physical-dimensions_53344ca673751.png
MLB Park Factors - 2015
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/year/2015/sort/HRFactor

ESPN  Lineup  Pre 2016

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14936299/mlb-projected-lineups-all-30-teams


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Pitcher
K
HR
RA

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2 major hidden stats
Fielding   FanGraphs
Bull Pen   Relief Pitcher  Runs Allowed

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http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14936299/mlb-projected-lineups-all-30-teams

Arizona Diamondbacks









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http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/25487993/miller-trade-davis-signing-among-worst-moves-of-the-mlb-offseason
http://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-free-agents-2015-16/
http://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-trade-tracker-2015-16-offseason/

 http://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-free-agents-2015-16/
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/news/hot_stove/y2015/free_agent_tracker.jsp
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/159776114/the-10-best-upgrades-so-far-this-offseason

 http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14068895/mlb-hot-stove-free-agency-offseason-moves

 http://espn.go.com/mlb/freeagents/_/type/ranked

 http://espn.go.com/mlb/transactions

 http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14936299/mlb-projected-lineups-all-30-teams

 http://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/park-factors/

 http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=pf&season=2014&teamid=0&sort=13,d

 https://baseballmonster.com/MLBParkFactors.aspx

 http://playbook.draftkings.com/mlb/ballpark-factors/

 http://joeposnanski.com/a-bit-more-math-park-factors/

 http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/2/23/5410106/fun-with-park-factors
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/closers/_/year/2015








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Soccer  Underdog
+1.5
magic number

during Regulation

that extra  1/2  point is big

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+1.5

eliminate payoff less than  -150

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+1

try it but you want EV  even money or better

eliminate  less than  -110

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Payout  vs  Probability


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Draws are very common

+1/2  point
for regulation play is actually significant for soccer

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Poker Bots

http://www.pokernews.com/news/2016/03/heads-up-bots-stronger-than-humans-nlhe-never-solved-24312.htm

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